It is unclear if today's surprising beat in both ADP and, just released, Initial Claims, is supposed to set the stage for a much better NFP tomorrow, in order to justify the lack of QE, for at least a few more months, and to validate that Fed's ongoing silence even as the BOE, PBOC and ECB have all eased. What is clear is that after 6 weeks of misses, initial claims finally posted a beat, printing at 374K, better than expectations of 385K, and down from last week's 386K print which as always was revised upward to 388K. Those on EUC and Extended Benefits continued to decline with just under 30K dropping off the 99 week cliff. Finally, if indeed it is Bernanke's intention to telegraph that there will be no QE because the economy is, don't laugh, suddenly improving now, the market will be very, very unhappy.
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