In a follow-up to last week's deep dive [7] on the end of the US CapEx boom (and the possibility that the Fed is out of bullets) and the growing hope once again that the US can remain the 'decoupled' least syphilitic-hooker-in-a-whorehouse, we thought it useful (given this week's somewhat disappointing reversion to reality in macro data and markets) to highlight four clear un-decoupling indications. From Economic Surprise Index similarities between Europe and the US, to record negative pre-announcements and fading US CapEx growth rates, the reversion in US manufacturing and new orders data to Europe's (and Asia's) sad reality is not going to be 'saved' by the supposed housing recovery - as we noted here earlier [8]. With credit and FX markets already signaling a hope-less market, we wonder how long before stocks catch-down (and the 'De-Cuppers' smell the napalm).
1. The US Economic Surprise Index and the European Economic Surprise Index have recoupled perfectly and are tracking lower together...
[9]
2. Negative Earnings Pre-Announcements Are at Multi-Period Highs... (and S&P 500 EPS consensus down 3% from the start of the year)
[10]
3. Large high-quality US non-financial firms are 'unconfidently' slowing their CapEx spending as growth rates are rolling over notably...
[11]
4. And after a 'warmth'-inspired Spring, US manufacturing is reverting rapidly to Europe's sad reality with New Export orders plunging...
[12]
But, as Monty Python might say, apart from all of this - what has the 'bull' market got ahead of it for you.
Source: Bloomberg, Citi, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs