Despite assurances that "we always get the majority we need" by Frau Merkel, the FT reports [4]that the Bundestag's vote this Thursday (expected to come down in favor of the bailout) will not gain the so-called 'Chancellor's majority'. While she retains an overall majority of 19 (from the ranks of her own Christian Democratic Union, its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, and the liberal Free Democratic party in her coalition), the recent ESM vote saw 26 of her supporters rebel (voting 'Nein' or abstaining) - though ended up being passed thanks to support from SPD and The Greens. While a 'Chancellor's majority' is not required to approve the EUR100 billion Spanish bailout, "Anything other than a chancellor’s majority is a defeat, and a sign of the erosion of the power of the chancellor," which leads us down the path we have noted previously of the inevitability of a referendum-like vote next year (which may just be the leave-the-Euro-coz-that's-what-the-people-want 'out' Germany has been looking for). Certainly, the vote is no panacea (politically or economically) as Jens Weidmann notes that the bailout would be more effective 'conditions' were applied across Spain, adding that "It would have a positive effect on the bond market if investors saw that the conditions... went beyond the banking sector".
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