While European and US equity and credit market seem somewhat asleep this morning (despite quite significant moves in FX, Treasury, and Commodity markets), there is some stirrings in Italian and Spanish Senior and Subordinated debt markets. No matter how much de Guindos denies-denies-denies, the fact is the market has been increasingly pricing in subordinated bank debt impairment and now senior bank debt is inching wider also after the ECB's 'suggestions' came to light this weekend. Subordinated Italian and Spanish bank debt is at its worst since mid-December and the decompression trade we suggested is moving slowly on our direction.
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Chart: Bloomberg