As channel-stuffing shifted from the US (here [4]) to China (here [5]) and Europe (here [6]), so the new vehicle sales data has disconnected from a number of realities. Whether it is economic growth or Ford's share price, things look a little over-cooked in the land of if-we-build-it-the-government-will-buy-'em. However, there is one index that tends to see through all the unreality much more clearly than our analysis above, that is the Used Vehicle Price index. Each time this index has dropped and broken below its two-year average, the auto industry has tended to fade rapidly. After yesterday's comments on the lowering of collateral standards for subprime auto lending [7], it would appear we are setting up nicely for some whocouldanode moment in the manufacturing sector's most critical industry.
Each time Used Vehicle prices (black) have dropped plunged below their two-year average (red dots) signaling a slowing of momentum (which Bob Shiller noted yesterday was critical to major credit-driven purchases), so the auto industry (e.g. Annualized vehicle sales and Ford share price in the chart) has weakened notably...
[8]
(h/t Last Crusader)