UPDATE: AAPL cracked the demonic $666 level after-hours
For a moment this morning some were even thinking this would be the day, this could be the one where volumes come back, ranges expand, and some level of risk sensitivity returns; but alas, despite all the AAPL pumping and Silver surging, Equities ended the day unch on weak volumes (actually cash equities ended very small down for the 16th of the last 17 Monday red closes). The S&P 500 e-mini future (ES) intraday range was a remarkably low 8.5pts, volume at its new post-Knight normal (half-normal), average trade-size lower than average, and risk-assets in general were highly correlated during the day-session as Treasuries also closed unchanged, USD down very modestly and Oil unch. Financials and Tech & Healthcare and Utilities were the only sectors in the green on the day (in an awkward risk on and off way). Copper dumped as Silver surged 2.6% on the day to two-month highs. AAPL also surged 2.6% (up 7% in the last 6 days - a level that has repeatedly been followed by pullbacks this year) as everyone's new favorite IPO (MANU) lost 2.6% (even as FB gained almost 5% closing just below $20). VIX gained 0.6 vols ending above 14% (but drifted lower from the open). While the markets main seem zombie-like, there were some intraday moves in FX and Treasury markets - but these were dominant during Europe's open and faded into the US day-session.
AAPL surged 2.6%, +7% in the last 6 days and on very heavy volume...
[5]
and the AAPL effect... +5.4% in 3 days provides a 90-100bps outperformance (over 3 days!!) of NASDAPPL over the Dow/S&P/Transports index...
[6]
S&P 500 futures saw significant early volumes as they pressed against VWAP but then crept higher into the close (after Europe's close) on lower and lower volumes...
[7]
The pattern was similar for most risk assets today - with an early volatility episode during Europe's early trading that recovered and stabilized on vapors in the US session...FX markets...
[8]
but Treasury and FX carry swings drove early European 'strength' in our markets only to give it back once the ECB denied... as is clear below - during the US day-session, risk assets (ES and CONTEXT [9]) were highly systemically correlated...
[10]
and Silver stood alone among commdoties in its spikey surginess today...
[11]
Credit indices outperformed - catching up to equity's ebulience - but desk chatter is mostly on re-racking moves (i.e. runs quoted on back of market moves) as opposed to trades with volumes dire. HYG remains an underperformer - though managed a small green close today against equity's red...
[12]
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context [9]
Bonus Chart: AAPL/Silver ratio - it intrigued us that AAPL and Silver were both outliers today and both rose almost exactly 2.6% or so from Friday's close... so presented for your viewing pleasure the channel-breakout of the AAPL/Silver ratio (that occurred immediatley after the end of LTRO2)...
[13]