The market was not exactly ecstatic at the FOMC minutes but certainly squeezed up off its pre-minutes lows to end very fractionally green (S&P small up, Dow down, NASDAQ up - thanks to AAPL's 2% gain - it's 7th in 3 month). Post-FOMC the QE-on trade was very clear - Treasury yields tumbled, stocks popped, USD weakened, and Gold soared. These were quite significant moves relative to recent ranges: Gold broke above its 200DMA - back to early May highs; Treasury yields dropped 10bps - biggest plunge in rates since start of June (as it bounces off its 200DMA). On the week, the NASDAQ is the only major US index in the green (+0.1%) while the Dow is down 0.78%. VIX ended above 15% - very fractionally green - as credit (spreads) underperformed - not participating in the last 45 minute ramp in stocks. In general, equity's strength was not accompanied by risk-assets following suit today - but the QE-on correlation regime is likely dominating that divergence (though we do note that TSY 2s10s30s and FX carry were not playing along at all in the equity strength) and while volume was better than last week, it was concentrated around the FOMC minutes and also into the close (with blocks coming through into the close) - another narrow range (10 S&P points) day.
Gold broke above its 200DMA and trades back to May 2nd levels...
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as it disconnected in a QE-on manner after the FOMC minutes...
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with Treasury yields plunging their most in over 2 months...
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with today's AAPL action leaving NASDAQ the only green index on the week...
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as credit was not impressed with the late day action...
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and with volatility up, credit underperforming, treasury yields down, and FX carry unmoved (even though USD weakened), it is no surprise that our arb and CONTEXT (risk asset) models were not playing along with this equity hope...
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Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context