The tried strategy of "Baffle them with BS" continues today following the release of the June (two month delayed) Case Shiller data. Because whereas last week [10]we showed that New Home Prices are plunging, and the average new home price just dropping to its 2012 lows, when it comes to the Case-Shiller index, things are looking up. In June, the Top 20 composite index rose by 0.94%, well above the expected increase of 0.45%. How much of this is due to the REO-to-Rental program in which we are now seeing actively securitization of rental properties, which in essence is converting more and more of the Residential market into commercial real estate, remains unclear. For now it is clear that those entities with access to cash are buying up properties in beaten down areas in hopes these will be filled by renters. On the other hand, the truth is that summer months always see the biggest pricing gains, and following the May data revision, which rose at a revised rate of 0.97%, one may observe that the pricing increase has now peaked even according to delayed CS data, and has begun its traditional rolling over pattern. And a pattern it is. As the second chart below shows very clearly, housing is now merely in the dead cat bounce phase of a broad housing quadruple dip, each one having been facilitated by either Fed or ECB intervention. We give this one a few more months before it too resumes the downward trendline so very well known to Japanese homeowners, and falls in line with the data reported by the Census department.
Seasonally adjusted Case Shiller data:
[11]
But even better, the NSA data, showing the distinct peaks and troughs of the quadruple housing double dip, which will in 3-4 months be a quintuple dip.
[12]
And from the report [13]:
“Home prices gained in the second quarter,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “In this month’s report all three composites and all 20 cities improved both in June and through the entire second quarter of 2012. All 20 cities and both monthly Composites rose for the second consecutive month. It would have been a third consecutive month had we not seen home prices fall in Detroit back in April.
“The National Composite rose by 6.9% in the second quarter alone, and is up 1.2% from the same quarter of 2011. The 10- and 20-City Composites closely mimic these results; the 10-City was up 5.8% over the quarter and the 20-City was up 6.0%. The two Composites also entered positive territory on an annual basis, up 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively.
“Only two cities – Charlotte and Dallas – saw annual rates of change worsen in June. The other 18 cities and both composites saw improvement in this statistic, and 13 of these had a positive trend. There were only six cities – Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, New York and San Diego – where the annual rates of change were still negative. Boston’s annual rate was flat. We seem to be witnessing exactly what we needed for a sustained recovery; monthly increases coupled with improving annual rates of change. The market may have finally turned around.
“The regions showed positive results for June. All 20 of the cities saw average home prices rise in June over May and all were by at least 1.0%. Detroit was up the most, +6.0%, and Charlotte the least, +1.0%. The Composites showed the same increases as last month – the 10-City rose by 2.2% in June and the 20-City by 2.3%. We are aware that we are in the middle of a seasonal buying period, but the combined positive news coming from both monthly and annual rates of change in home prices bode well for the housing market.”
Ah yes, "housing has bottomed."