With a few minutes to go until Ben speaks, the entirely useless projections are out (as noted before by Reuters that the Fed has been constantly wrong in its forecasts). The stunning punchline is that according to the Fed things are not as bad as one would have expected given the dramatic open-ended shart-fest that Bernanke is portraying. In fact, things are improving per the FOMC! Though we assume that these projections are self-defeating since they likely include this new policy. Be interested to see the pre-policy projections.
- *FED OFFICIALS SAY GROWTH WILL IMPROVE FASTER THAN JUNE OUTLOOK
- *FED: 2012 GROWTH OF 1.7%-2.0% VS 1.9%-2.4% IN JUNE
- *FED: 2013 GROWTH OF 2.5%-3.0% VS 2.2%-2.8% IN JUNE
- *FED: 2014 GROWTH OF 3.0%-3.8% VS 3.0%-3.5% IN JUNE
- *FED: JOBLESS END OF 2012 AT 8.0%-8.2% UNCHANGED FROM JUNE
- *FED: JOBLESS END OF 2013 AT 7.6%-7.9% VS 7.5%-8.0% IN JUNE
- *FED: 2012 PCE INFLATION OF 1.7%-1.8% VS 1.2%-1.7% IN JUNE
- *FED: 2013 PCE INFLATION OF 1.6%-2.0% VS 1.5%-2.0% IN JUNE
One wonders, whether in addition to having excel models which appoarently do not recognize circular assumptions, if the Fed's forecasts also assume $10 gas, $100 loaves of bread, and $10,000 gold?