You've heard the CEO's oracular outlook; you've read the press-release; you've seen Maria Bartiromo flush and the algos stymied in after-hours trading. Now here are the facts:
- *ALCOA CUTS 2012 GLOBAL ALUMINUM DEMAND FORECAST TO 6% VS 7%
- Free Cash Flow: Q3 -$39MM
- Adjusted EBITDA: Q3 $282mm, down 45% from Q2
- Adjusted EBITDA: Q3 2011: $821 MM; Q2 2012: $ 517 MM; Q3 2013: $282 MM
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin Changes: Q3 2011: 12.8%; Q2 2012: 8.7%; Q3 2012 4.8%
- Total debt: $9,524; Net debt: $8,092; LTM EBITDA $1,875 million; Total Leverage: 5.1x; Net Leverage: 4.3x
and here is the correlation:
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(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)