Citi was the headline-maker of the day and is now (somehow) up 12.4% from QEtc. AAPL's low average-trade-size but reasonable volume rip (+2.3%) just failed to fill the gap-down from 10/5 but provided just the excuse the market needed to rip on a debate-day. Tech remains the only sector in the red post-QEtc. The last two days we have seen the same pattern play out as in the last few weeks, a plunge-plunge-linear-ramp with the opposite scale on volume during these moves. Today's equity market levitation was predicated on rumors of a pending credit line with Spain - which was denied by everyone involved but by then correlations were high and momentum was in charge. FX markets are highly dispersed with JPY weakness and EUR strength leaving the USD -0.44% on the week. Commodities recovered a little on the day with Oil/Copper +0.25% on the week and gold/silver still lagging. Treasuries bear-steepened with 30Y +8.5bps. VIX dropped marginally to 15.22%. Credit was dead after Europe closed, underperforming equities push.
The plunge-plunge-linear-ramp pattern in S&P futures...
AAPL just failed to fill the gap to 10/05...
[4]
and medium-term (the trendline channels are from the May lows) S&P 500 futures saw a trendline (and DMA) test bounce up to another trendline test today with heavy activity at the highs - up near post-QEtc knee-jerk levels (and above the 1444.5 VWAP post-QEtc.)...
[5]
and a slightly different look at the support levels...
[6]
Markets were generally relatively highly correlated - both ETFs and broad risk asset classes...
[7]
but there has been some dislocations intraday between Oil (plunge and recover) yesterday, Gold (plunge and slowly recover today), Treasuries (outperform and then catch down to stocks today), while the USD has been the anchor all along...
[8]
Are we seeing yet another junk rally as winners become losers and losers outperform... post QEtc. performance for the major financials...
[9]
and Tech remains the only losing sector post QEtc. with Healthcare leading the way still...
[10]
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart:Inversion of the 10Y-30Y Inflation Breakeven term structure (lower pane - implying a front-loading of reflationary concern relative to long-term - or over-exuberance at reflation) has occurred at 2 previous important times... will third time be lucky?
[11]
Bonus Bonus Chart: IBM down over 3% after-hours to one-month lows - which is equivalent to a 50pt smack on the Dow...
[12]