If the just released 2013-2016 latest re-re-revised budget [5]out of the Athens Finance Ministry (whose basement was forever memorialized in the following picture [6]) is all Greek to you, it's because it is. But even it wasn't, it would still be absolute gibberish and yet another failed study in the 'analysis' of animal entrails in order to predict the future. Why? We have extracted merely one data series: the brand new debt/GDP (ignoring for a second the -4.5% 2013 GDP forecast - already 0.5% worse than the just released IMF forecast for Greece for the same period and certainly worse than the May forecast of 2013 "growth"), and have compared it to the Debt/GDP "forecast" as of May 2010 [7], when the first Greek bailout was announced. The numbers speak for themselves.
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... Just a tad different, especially 2014, where the original forecast saw a declining debt/GDP of 144.3%, and now, two year later, this number is supposed to peak at 191.6%. Of course, in two years, when 2014 is a historical, the real number will have a 3 handle (and be triple digits for those confused).
The balance of the forecasts:
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Obviously the numbers above are absolute bullshit.
Instead of commenting further, here is what we said back in May 2010 [7], when the tradition of buying Greece on the forecasts was launched:
Greece just got bailed out so it can get into even more debt! What psychopath of the Keynesian school thinks that this unbelievable trajectory is anything but a complete and utter waste of money? German, and US taxpayers, are merely giving Greece money so it can increase it debtor status with French and a few other European banks. To say that this is a viable solution is something that only those who bow at the altar of Alan Greenspan can do.
Nearly three year later, and once again, spot on.
Finally, for those confused why Greece will never, ever be fixed until it is finally kicked out of the sinking European Titanic, here it is again: a picture of the interior of the Greek Finance Ministry [6]:
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