[1]Dear Buenos Aires: we have three words of advice - "hide yo' catamarans" (before Paul Singer comes and collects [5] them all once you default again in what the market now deems is inevitable to occur in the next few weeks). 5Y CDS on Argentina just reverse-Baumgartnered to over 3000bps (49/53% upfront) and short-dated CDS imply a 60% probability of default (assuming a 25% recovery).
[6]
Chart: Bloomberg
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Links:
[1] http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
[2] http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy_vtn/term/142
[3] http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy_vtn/term/7
[4] http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy_vtn/term/11361
[5] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/elliott-management-vs-argentina-round-2-now-its-personal
[6] http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/11/20121116_ARG.png