If you aren't thoroughly confused, confounded and outright disgusted by the newsflow supposed to represent the US economy, you aren't paying attention. Because two weeks after the preliminary UMich print [2]was supposed to come at 82.2, instead soaring to 84.9, or the biggest beat of expectations in 5 years, we get the final UMich number, which missed expectations of a 84.5 read and plunged to 82.7, the biggest miss of expectations in 4 years. Of course, this makes sense: two weeks ago we had the euphoria associated with a new old president, and hope that 4 more years may fix this country. Two weeks, and the biggest market drop in one year later, enthusiasm has been doused just a tad. And adding insult to injury, 1 Year inflation expectations rose from 3.0% to 3.1% - just as the spectre of declining asset prices has reared its ugly head, yet this is well below the 2.8% expected for 5 year inflation - as a reminder, in 5 years the Fed's balance sheet will be between $6 and 10 trillion. Boy is everyone in for a surprise...
But the bottom line: the long-standing tradition of "confuse everyone with BS" continues, as investors desperate for some stability either to the up or downside, are unable to get a bearing for the 4th year in a row.
Two weeks ago:
[3]
And today:
[4]