While any and every bad data point recently has been summarily dismissed by the 'transitory' effects of Hurricane Sandy, it appears in the deepest darkest reality that there is more of a structural trend to this shift than simply a 'blip'. Claims missed expectations and prior data was revised higher leaving the four-week-average at its highest since October 2011 jumping back over 400k. More critically, when we dig into the details on the DoL site, we find some rather disturbing trends that totally dismiss Sandy effects. For instance, according to the DoL, there were 30.6k fewer initial claims in New York Last week - when this higher aggregate data point is supposed to be due to 'Sandy'. FL, MI, and MA saw the largest increases in claims. It seems blaming this trend-break on Sandy is now a non-starter - fiscal cliff front-running perhaps? Election hangover?
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and by state - NY saw improvements so the miss and rise in aggregate claims is NOT a Sandy-related thing quite clearly...
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Charts: Bloomberg and DoL