The technicals were in charge today as S&P futures coiled around VWAP early on, tested lows, then pushed to highs (coinciding with the 50DMA) - ending the day-session in the green. Low volume and low average trade size suggest this was not the pros filling their boots and the lack of enthusiasm among Treasury traders (despite a very late day ramp higher in yields), FX traders (EUR weakness dragged USD back to Unchanged on the week), and Oil (ending the day -2.9% on the week) didn't fill us with fear of a next leg higher (for now). Gold and stocks traded tick for tick most of the day as the precious metal toyed with $1700 again and HYG (the high-yield bond ETF) also recoupled with SPY (stocks) all day (shifting richer to its fair-value). Of course, AAPL is the name of the day with its death spiral, VWAP save, and VWAP reversion amid gigantic volume - but low average trade size (to close +1.5%). VIX ignored equity strength and closed +0.15 vols at 16.6% (very close to where it opened).
The Dow is the only US equity index in the green for the week with NASDAQ lagging still...
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and the Russell continues its dump-and-pump coiling action...
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and VIX remains bid relative to stocks - as it appears the main flow came in at month-end (red arrow)...
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Correlations across risk assets broke down before the US open and it seemed that Gold and Stocks were the playmates of the day while Bonds, USD, and Oil trailed along the other direction...
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ETFs (left - SPY vs combo VXX/HYG/TLT) in general tracked each other very closely in their oh-so-synthetic way - but cash risk markets (right) were not playing along with equity excitement...
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Stocks and high yield credit recoupled after yesterday's falling out...
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FX markets saw EURUSD give all its gains back and then some to drag the USD back to unchanged against a broad basket of the majors...
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Copper dumped some of the week's gains but it was Oil that was the biggest loser with Gold and Silver making modest gains (though lower on the week - interesting given USD unch)...
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Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context [15] [15]
Bonus Chart: AAPL's VWAP round-trip...notice that today's VWAP close was perfectly in line with yesterday's close around $540 (coincidence eh?)
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