While everyone loves a good inspirational movie - Rudy (every underdog has his day), Field of Dreams (if you build it they will come), Million Dollar Baby (be relentless); it is a somewhat sad reflection of reality that in fact - hope and trying hard is simply not enough (especially when you are a debt-saturated global economy). Two data points highlight this better than any others. Today we see wholesale inventories relative to sales at multi-year highs (aside from the great recession's peak) - having risen for almost two years now as we have built 'stuff' but the buyers just haven't come. And to rub a little more salt into the eternal optimist's wounds, it appears that Small Business Optimism has continued its divergence from equities (which notably saw stocks crash the previous two times). Equities remain the hope-driven liquidity-fueled home of the algo-optimist while all around struggles '300'-like with economic reality. Are stocks about to have their "I see dead people" moment?
Wholesale Inventories-to-Sales suggest that the 'Field of Dreams' economy is broken...
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and no wonder - as Small Business Optimism indicates we are due for a dose of reality...
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(h/t Brad W at NewEdge)