I am not an expert in trading oil, its production, or fracking. However, I can interpret a production chart, and I do live in Texas where I can see the drilling activity, first hand. Here is a road-side rig that I photographed on 290 between Houston and Austin this past weekend.
These beasts are everywhere, and they eat tubular steel...tons and tons of it!
Here is a close up of the giant Hydrogen Sulfide tank. Nasty stuff.
And here is the chart I am interested in right now.
[5]
You can make your own version here [5], courtesy of the EIA.
This chart depicts crude oil production, not Natural Gas, yet it appears that the big shale plays in Texas and North Dakota are exactly where the new crude oil production is coming from. This correlates with what I wrote a couple years ago on zerohedge [6], that a neighbor of mine who is in the fracking business told me they were getting A LOT of crude from South Texas shale, even though they originally thought they were fracking for natural gas. From the looks of this chart, it appears he was telling the truth.
I do know that the tubular steel conversion business has been a money-making machine in and around Houston for the last three years. If fracking comes to your neighborhood, it may be a good idea to get in on some Reg D Private Placement offerings for tubular steel suppliers and steel conversion shops. Don't let the local bankers make all the money...practice disintermediation.
If you do not have the net worth to invest in a Private Placement, consider getting a gooseneck-flatbed trailer for your truck and getting in the hot-shot business. There is good money to be made when the fracking frenzy comes to your watershed town.