If one reads sellside research (especially that of Bank of America or Goldman), if one listens to comedy-finance fusion TV channels, if one reads newspapers, one can't help but be left with the impression that everyone and their grandmother is now dumping Treasurys and buying stocks. Why - because this is a key part of Bernanke's latest masterplan (which is the same as all his previous "masterplans", which have failed so far about 4 times previously) to force what little retail investing capital is left out there out of the safety of bonds (return of capital), and into stocks (return on capital). The catalyst? This time, for real, central planners will generate enough (controlled) inflation to create losses for anyone holding long duration paper (such as the Fed of course, whose DV01 is the biggest in the history of the world at over $2 billion, but we digress). So just to test whether or not this was indeed the case, we decided to go to the source data for what the smartest money of all is doing: the 20 or so (RIP 21st PD MF Global) primary dealers. After all, if everyone is dumping Treasurys over fears of an imminent surge in yields, and rotating into stocks, it would be them right? Well, the result is charted below: we present it without commentary.
[5]
OK, a little commentary. Yes, the black line just hit an all time high, confirming that while everyone else may be selling, the Dealers, the smartest people: those who not only get an advance notice from the Fed itself, but provide feedback on what it should do, are not only not selling, they have never owned more Treasurys than they do now...
Do what they say, or do what they do?
Source: NYFed [6] [6]