"If you have to forecast, forecast often"
- Edgar Fiedler, assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy under Nixon/Ford administrations
Need just one chart to avoid anyone who says they have any idea where the S&P will close in three years... or two... or one? Here it is: the graphic below shows that when it comes to predicting the closing level of the S&P several years into the future, absolutely nobody, and certainly not the consensus outlook, has any clue. However, they sure make up for lack of accuracy and insight with hope, optimism, and relentless persistence and enthusiasm to be wrong again and again and again.