Stocks surged (apart from AAPL) gloriously out of their super-narrow recent range, driven by recycled JPY rumors and some potential 'give' by the Republicans, and the rest of the risk-on complex tracked higher with it. Treasury yields pinged back to higher on the week as the S&P took out recent highs amid a very large surge in average trade size - something that often marks a climax in trend. It seems the selling of vol has hit its short-term limit (as VIX flatlined in general today) and so FX and credit were the levers today. Gold and Silver also surged on the day as Oil popped on the growing tensions in Algeria. In a premature release, Intel exposed an EPS beat, revenue miss, and weak guidance which sent algos scurrying and the share price snapping up and down into the close (and falling after). The bottom-line seems to be that the BoJ joining the infinite print brigade (and some very mixed US macro data) was enough to break us out of a narrow range - but the VWAP reversion into the close appears anything but follow through for the next leg up - as trade size suggests short-term trend change.
The world shifted a little today as VIX compression lost its mojo...
[3]
JPY weakness and the carry driver correlation were the basis for much of today's equity exuberance
[4]
S&P 500 futures tradedup to the up channel trendline highs - amid large block (blue)...
[5]
As average trade size surged...
[6]
Commodities surged (even as USD remained relatively flat)
[7]
Gold and the S&P 500 are now synced from 1/3/13 close at +1.4%.
Intel, afer trading up immediately on the headlines, is now trading down afterhours...
[8]
Full-Year 2013
- Revenue: low single-digit percentage increase.
- Gross margin percentage: 60 percent, plus or minus a few percentage points.
- R&D plus MG&A spending: $18.9 billion, plus or minus $200 million.
- Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles: approximately $300 million.
- Depreciation: $6.8 billion, plus or minus $100 million.
- Impact of equity investments and interest and other: net gain of approximately $100 million.
- Tax Rate: approximately 25 percent.
- Full-year capital spending: $13.0 billion, plus or minus $500 million.
Q1 2013
- Revenue: $12.7 billion, plus or minus $500 million.
- Gross margin percentage: 58 percent, plus or minus a couple percentage points.
- R&D plus MG&A spending: approximately $4.6 billion.
- Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles: approximately $75 million.
- Impact of equity investments and interest and other: net loss of approximately $50 million.
- Depreciation: approximately $1.7 billion.
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context