Based on Heinz' new best friend from Omaha's "best single measure of where valuations stand at any given momen," US equities are now over-valued for the first time since 2007. Buffett's measure - the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the US GNP - as Cullen Roche indicates on Bloomberg's Chart of the Day, crossed 100% this week into stretched territory. As Gurufocus notes [2], this implies a mere return of around 3.3% annualized (including dividends) ove rthe folowing years - though as is clear from the chart below - the ride is extremely bumpy...
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