It seems that as long as lumber futures are rising they are an excellent indicator of the strength of the housing recovery, but once they show any weakness, it is technical or negligible. A few things we know: inventory is epically low; homebuilder stocks are priced for perfection (and missing); NAHB confidence is rolling over; and now Lumber futures have tumbled by the most over the last five days in 15 months. So much for a sustained 'recovery'.
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Chart: Bloomberg