While all eyes were on Italy today [6] - and we will get to that below - Swiss 2Y rates turned negative once again for the first time in a month; EURUSD relatively flatlined around 1.3050 (250 pips lower than pre-Italy); Europe's VIX exploded to almost 26% (from under 19% yesterday); and 3-month EUR-USD basis swaps plunged to their most liquidity-demanding level since 12/28. Spain and Italy (and Portugal) were the most hurt in bonds today as 2Y Italian spreads broke back above 200bps (surging over 50bps casting doubt on OMT support) and 3Y Spain yields broke above 3% once again. The Italian equity market suffered its equal biggest drop in 6 months falling back to 10 week lows (and down 14% from its end-Jan highs). Italian bond yields (and spreads) smashed higher - the biggest jump in 19 months as BTP futures volume exploded in the last two days. Something dramatic has changed as the fast money is running with bonds and stocks going out at their lows of the day. In CDS-land, Italy is now 'riskier' than Spain for the first time in a year.
Italy 5Y CDS rose above Spain 5Y CDS for the first time in a year...
[7]
Broadly ugly...
[8]
Italy - last two days... even as the short-selling ban provided some stability [6]...
[9]
Italy - longer-term...
[10]
Notice the difference in volume on this downturn relative to the similar sized dump in December... it is different this time...
Charts: Bloomberg