Despite the hopes and greed of the marginal greater fool algo lifting equity markets to highs, Goldman's business cycle 'swirlogram' [6] has dropped notably into the 'Slowdown' phase after a brief 6-month trip into 'Expansion'. China growth risks remain the largest weight on investors' angst (Chinese IP growth and retail sales for the January/February period were sequentially weaker, and overall disappointing) as Euro and US risks have 'apparently' fallen in the last week or two.
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Chart: Goldman Sachs