Stocks bounced off yesterday's lows on the "no" vote from Cyprus led by a miraculously visible hand smashing EURUSD (and implicitly EURJPY) higher instantaneously (BIS or banks repatriating in a hurry). That faded after S&P 500 futures touched VWAP and major volume was dumped but stocks, after an ebullient morning reaching into the green from Friday, fell back once more, only to exhibit the low-volume liftathon on ECB 'no news' to green into the close (for the Dow). Treasuries practically ignored the hyped up pump in the last hour and ended at their lows yields of the week (down 10-13bps) - 3-week lows. VIX surged on the day but drifted back a little into the ramp ending at 14.5% +1vol. FX markets reverted like stocks in the afternoon but the main theme is EUR weakness and JPY strength (carry-off) and despite the USD strength, gold pushed higher to $1612. The S&P and Nasdaq ended the day red (at VWAP) while the magic of the Dow closed it green - once again hedging dominated actual selling for now.
S&P futures closed perfectly at VWAP - now that is human eh?!!
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as the Dow leads on the week...
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VIX protection was heavily bid all day - and market breadth stayed in line with indices - suggesting participants were more hedging than selling (for now)...
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Treasuries are not at all excited about this into-the-close pump in stocks...
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as FX and commodity markets were relatively calm apart from their V-Fib moments...
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and summing up across all risk asset-classes, Capital Context's CONTEXT model [10] shows what FX, rates, commodities, and credit thought of the afternoon pump...
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Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context