Europe's paymaster - that would be Germany for those who have not paid attention to events over the past four years - is not used to being snubbed. It certainly is not used to being snubbed by what every empty chatterbox and their kitchen sink will tell you is a "small and irrelevant" country (all the more so in the aftermath of last summer's embarrassing defeat in its head on confrontation with the ECB, in which the Bundesbank showed that sometimes the best offense is a gracious retreat). It most certainly is not used to not being invited to discussions involving the future of its precious mercantilist European union, especially when said union may no longer exist as we know it in 48 short hours. And Germany is angry.
From Bloomberg [7]:
As Russia spurned the island nation’s bid for a loan, Merkel told a closed-door meeting of legislators in Berlin today that she’s annoyed the Cypriot government hasn’t been in touch with the so-called troika of international creditors for days, according to a party official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the briefing was private. Cyprus’s decision to test Europe is unacceptable, she told them.
“We’re not ready to accept solutions that are full of wind,” Michael Fuchs, deputy parliamentary leader of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, said after the meeting. “I don’t think it’s appropriate to play poker in this matter, especially when you think that there’s a risk that two banks will become insolvent next Monday.”
In other words, how dare the pesky Cypriots think a "union" is comprised of equal "units", instead of being a despotic tyrrany in which the adjusted version of the golden rule (perhaps explaining why the Buba is pulling all its French and a lot of its NY Fed gold) applies.
Germany will have none of that nonsense.
So while "experts" wait with bated breath for the results of today's Cypriot debate and vote, the reality is it is completely irrelevant, and any of the proposed terms and "resolution" ideas are irrelevant. Why? Because without Germany's blessing (which also means the idea should have originated with Germany in the first place), there is no solution, especially not one that benefits the abovementioned paymaster.
Which means either there is a deposit tax on the wealthy, which was the whole point of this carefully structured, politically punitive exercise, or there is no deal.
Because in Europe, like everywhere else, it is quid (even if it will soon be quit)-pro-quo.