Succinctly summarizing the positive and negative news, data, and market events of the week...
Positives
- Cyprus tried to calm market jitters, as it agreed to a last minute deal with the Troika. The deal secures a $13 billion dollar lifeline, as well as ensuring continued access to the ECB's emergency lending program. The plan falls under a “bank restructuring”, as to avoid a vote, and claims that all deposits under 100 thousand Euros are safe (for now). Post Mortem here… [11]
- Kuroda said that the BOJ would look to abolish a self-imposed rule that limits the amount of government bonds his central bank can buy. He also indicated they would look to purchase further out on the curve. As a result, U.S. equities could be impacted as investors chase yield using the Yen as their funding currency of choice.
- Average home prices in February increased 8.1% YOY according to Case-Shiller's 20-city composite index.
- U.S. durable goods orders in February jumped 5.7% MoM, following a January decline. However, as we point out here [12], true CapEx has yet to make its 'recovery'.
- Minneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota said that there is a need for 'more accommodation than is currently being provided' by the Fed. He also went on to say that there is little evidence that the Fed's monetary policies are generating any significant financial stability problems at this time. However, it's unclear as to how he defines 'significant' [13]...
- The S&P closed at its all-time high to end Q1 on Thursday - and it only took ~$8 trillion [14] to get there.
- Citi announces the all clear with new Synthetic CDO offerings.
- The Final UMich Consumer Confidence number beat expectations.
- US Spending and Income data came in better than expected [15].
Negatives
- Just when everything was all 'fixed' again, Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem created turmoil [16] after he said that the Cyprus 'bail-in' agreement could become a model for the future. However, after the market reminded him that he should be using the 'Juncker rule', (just to lie when it gets serious), he promptly retracted and deflected [17] as a good Eurogroup head should.
- U.S. Consumer confidence took a dive in March [18], as a print of 59.7 was put up vs. an expected 68 print (and down from 68 in February).
- New home sales in the U.S. fell 4.6% [18] MoM in February…
- Italian consumer confidence (unsurprisingly) dropped in March to 85.2 - unclear as to why savings to insolvent bank equity swaps are not viewed favorably by the Italians…
- Moody's says the risk of a Euro exit by Cyprus is 'substantial' [19], and could lead to large losses for investors.
- They're baaack: Egan-Jones downgrades the UK [20] from AA- to A+ (a non-NRSRO rating of course)...
- Spain announced [21] that their 2012 budget deficit will actually be smaller bigger than first thought. Somewhere Spanish bank CEO's are scrambling to figure out how many spiderman towels they have in inventory in order to fund even more government debt purchases…
- EuroStoxx 50 closes Q1 in negative territory [22]…
- February Chicago PMI plunges to 52.4 [23], far below expectations of a 56.5 print.
- Final Q4 GDP print comes in at a meager .37% [24].
- Weekly jobless claims come in at 357,000, up from last week's revised figure of 341,000… Steady as she goes [25]…
- Personal Savings Rate is at the second lowest since 2007 and real disposable income is lower than it was in December 2006. [15]
(H/t @ZH_Crown)