Summary of key US events in the week ahead:
Monday, April 1
- 10:00AM Construction Spending, February (consensus +0.8%, last -2.1%); Recent data on construction employment and housing units under construction point to a rebound from January's 2.1% drop.
- 10:00AM ISM Manufacturing Index, March (consensus 54.2, last 54.2); The slowdown in some regional Fed surveys and the Chicago PMI point to a slight drop in the ISM Manufacturing Index.
Tuesday, April 2
- 10:00AM Factory Orders, February (consensus +2.5%, last -2.0%) ; Strong orders for durable goods point to an increase in factory orders in February.
- 01:00PM Minnesota Fed President Kocherlakota (FOMC non-voter) speaks on monetary policy; Minnesota Fed President Kocherlakota will speak on "Improving the Outlook with Better Monetary Policy" and will take questions. Remarks will be similar to last week's speech of the same title, in which he repeated his preference for a 5.5% unemployment threshold for forward guidance on the Fed funds rate.
- 01:30PM Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (FOMC non-voter) will speak and take questions.
- 05:00PM Motor Vehicle Sales, March (consensus 15.3m, last 15.3m); Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales, March (GS 12.0m, consensus 12.0m, last 12.0m)
- 07:30PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) and Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC non-voter) will speak at a conference at Virginia Commonwealth University and take questions.
Wednesday, April 3
- 08:15AM ADP Employment Change, March (consensus 198k, last 198k)
- 10:00AM ISM Nonmanufacturing Index, March (consensus 56.0, last 56.0); The drop in March in the service sector component of the Richmond Fed's survey is balanced by recent strength in retail sales. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index is expected to drop only slightly to 55.5, roughly in line with the three-month moving average.
03:30PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks on monetary policy
Thursday, April 4
- 08:30AM Initial UI claims (consensus 340k, last 357k), continuing claims (consensus 3,041k, last 3,050k); Initial claims rose by 16k last week, but the 4 week moving average remains just above post-recession lows at 343k. Continuing claims have also continued to trend down.
- 08:45AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speak on monetary policy
- 10:30AM Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on the economy via taped video at University of Dayton conference
- 12:30PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks on the economy; George has dissented to both FOMC decisions this year, citing concern about financial imbalances.
- 05:00PM Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen interviewed by Fortune Magazine
Friday, April 5
- 08:30AM Nonfarm Payrolls, March (consensus 190k, last 236k); Jobless claims continued to fall in March and job ads increased.
- 08:30AM Unemployment Rate, March (consensus 7.7%, last 7.7%); Last month's two-tenths drop in the unemployment rate consisted of roughly equal contributions from increased employment and decreased participation.
- 08:30AM Average Hourly Earnings, March (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Growth in average hourly wages has been subdued at about 2% year-over-year for the past few years.
- 08:30AM Trade balance, February (consensus -$44.6bn, last -$44.4bn); A roughly flat trade balance is expected with a slight drop in petroleum imports. The trade balance was volatile at the end of 2012 and was slightly wider in January than the 6-month moving average of -$42.6bn.
- 03:00PM Consumer Credit, February (consensus +$16.0bn, last +$16.1bn); Consumer credit has expanded at a steady pace of about $16bn per month over the last few months. The consensus expects the recent trend to continue
via GS