Thanks to yet another JPYgasm (which saw the currency lose 1.8% against the USD on the day), stocks were levitated off early weakness amid the lowest non-holiday volume day and lowest average trade size. The message we are supposed to garner is "we don't need no stinkin' jobs" as all the cash indices were lifted to fill the non-farm payroll gap. Treasury yields rose 2-3bps but the 30Y remains massively off pre-NFP levels (as opposed to stocks) suggestive of the JPY rotation bid. Homebuilders were the high-beta ramp of choice, gaining almost 2% (why not?) on absolutely no news whatsoever (and are 2.6% higher than pre-NFP! Copper and Oil rose around 0.9% on the day even with the USD gaining 0.25% broadly. Silver and Gold leaked 0.4% lower from Friday's close. VIX dropped around 0.5 vols holding at 13.5% (below its pre-NFP level). So stocks back to pre-NFP levels (as is the USD) on dismal volume, VIX better than that, but safety is bid with Swiss rates, US Treasuries, and Gold in demand. JPY remains the story - now 7% weaker against the USD since the BoJ news - orderly?
The last 14 days... S&P 500 has gained 8 points, 30Y Treasury yields are 27bps lower since 3/18 close.
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With today's closing ramp just a funny thing to behold... (and notice the terrible below average volume).
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and the "Olde 330ET Ramp" perfectly in cue...standard 8 points out of absolutely no where!!!!
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which took most back to pre-NFP levels and also the S&P made it back to pre-Cyprus levels...
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and we are sure someone somewhere can explain the 6% raly in Homebuilders from the post-NFP print...
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Volume and average trade size today were terrible...
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and across assets - gold is doing best (along with bonds) as stocks recover NFP losses and the USD retraces also...
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Today saw risk-assets become increasingly correlated - with JPY crosses dominant as we levitated...
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But it remains a remarkable move in JPY (against the USD and EUR) which perhaps is spilling into the long-end of the US bond market (as seen above)
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Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context [13]