We have discussed the divergence between US equities and credit markets a number of times in the last few months with the old adage that "credit anticipates, and equity confirms." Well, it appears the high-yield credit investors are 'anticipating' in size. State Street reports that yesterday saw the 2nd biggest withdrawal ever from their $11.6bn JNK ETF. Around $380mm (or over 3%) was redeemed - and we note the price did not exactly reflect that kind of unwind. The more worrying feature is that the last time HY credit investors were this 'sure' was May 2012 and it pre-empted a 9% drop in the S&P 500 and 5% drop in JNK price. The divergence remains extreme.
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and closer up - this year has been 'different'
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It seems if you are 'bullish' then backing up the truck in JNK is the play, if bearish sell Stocks, if neither - arb.
Charts: Bloomberg