I'm surprised I haven't seen a post about this on the home page of ZH yet.
With Israel now having conducted two airstrikes on Syrian targets in two days, it seems obvious to me that they are clearing the way for a massive strike against Iran.
The Israeli military knows that the first retaliation for such a strike would come from Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, so they are restricting the weapons bound to those forces to limit retaliatory capabilities.
Netanyahu declared that Israel would neutralize Iranian nuclear capabilities no later than this Spring - which is about 1/2 over. Certainly he is not now distracted by Syria and is still resolute to hit Iran.
Based on his clear "red line" statements, I think it's a virtual certainty that Iran will be attacked before June 21 (the end of Spring 2013). Iran will certainly retaliate, which will radically raise the price of oil (unless this upside-down economic bizarro-world that we live in also somehow inverts this trade *sigh*).
I am now positioned long Sept. 2013 Oil Calls in the form of USO Calls. I figured that Sept. contracts gave me plenty of time for Iran to retaliate and to have that impact the price of oil. Sept. contracts out-of-the-money give me huge leverage right now as they are dirt cheap. I expect ROI of more than 100x.
I thought it worth posting about so that other ZHers could comment and/or position themselves in the same trade and/or provide me with counter-arguments that might allow me to rethink in the event I've missed something.
Cheers!