As we warned six weeks ago [2], the Fed's ZIRP side-effects have driven auto-lenders to scrape the bottom of the subprime-lending barrel once again (loans to subprime borrowers +18% YoY). It seems, based on the Fed's latest data, that this over-exuberant lending is coming back to bite once again as delinquent balances surge 23.9% year-over-year (though optimistically Experian reflects "obviously, we never want to see a rise in delinquencies or repossessions, but... they are still lower than the recession-level rates,"). As Experian also notes today [3], repossessions rose 16.9% year-over-year. All this as lending volumes overall rose 9.6% to $726 billion in Q1 2013 but average charge-off amounts rose by 9.8% to $7,401 on each defaulted loan - and the worse is yet to come, as "we continue to move forward, we should start to see more increases as some of the subprime loans coming onto the books begin to deteriorate." This will end well.
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