Earlier today, Spain reported [3]its first trade surplus since 1971, with exports of €20.3 billion finally surpassing imports of €19.7 billion and ending over four decades of constant trade deficits. Congratulations. That was the good news. The bad news is how this number came about. Because while the country will mark a GDP benefit as a result of the net trade number, the reality is that it was not due to a jump in exports, which rose by a lethargic €400MM Y/Y - hardly the stuff to write home about as can be seen on the chart below.
[4]
It is the second chart, however, that tells the true story of Spain's economy: that of imports, which in a stable or growing economy would be, well, stable or growing. Instead, Spanish imports collapsed by €3.5 billion Y/Y: the biggest such downside annual drop since the start of the depression in 2008.
[5]
Which begs the question: is the Spanish economy, after modestly growing in 2010 and 2010, set for the same spectacular collapse last seen in the days just following the start of the Great Financial Crisis? And what does this mean for the biggest risk factor for a nation whose banking sector has already been bailed out once, and where NPLs are slowly, or not so slowly, but certainly surely soaring behind the scenes?