Just because you have to laugh (rightfully so since it seems everyone is so 'confident' [3]), we thought a quick look under the covers of the Richmond Fed 'beat' was worthwhile. The index 'rose' from -6 to -2 (still negative), beating expectations of -4, seemingly driven by a 'surge' in Shipments (from -9 to +8). The Richmond Fed accounts for around 9.1% of the nation's GDP so it is intriguing that (drum roll please)... New order volume plunged to its lowest since January; the number of Employees swung to a negative, also its lowest since January; the average workweek cratered to -6 (its lowest since August 2012); and Wages dropped near its lowest level in a year. But apart from all that... of course, it's 'expectations' that are keeping the dream alive (despite a fading belief in higher wages). So hard data about the current situation is still collapsing but 'hope' brings us off the ledge?
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