Earlier today, we presented [4]what the Nielsen-ratings crater known as CNBC would call a "cautiously optimistic" view of the US future, showing that while the US economy has has its biggest ongoing slowdown since the Great Depression, it is now what the anchors at the abovementioned crater would call "off the lows."
[5]
That's great. Sadly, one other place where the same unbridled optimism can not be applied is when looking at real US wages.
The chart below shows the year over year change in real wages and the 5 year moving average. The most recent print was not unexpectedly negative.
[6]
However, where it gets even worse is when one normalizes for volatility by extending the comparison period to encompass more than just 4 quarters, and stretches the duration to a 2 year period over period change in real US wages. Looked at this way, the change in real US wages has never been worse...
[7]
... and sadly is not off the lows.
But aside from this minor fact, the US consumer has not been more confident in 5 years.