Those hoping for a decisive jump or plunge in the NFP number will be disappointed with the May NFP printing at 175K, on expectations of 165K, even as the April number was revised from 165K to 149K, and a net March-April revised change of -12K. The Unemployment rate was 7.6% higher than the expected 7.5%, driven by a tiny increase in the Labor Force Participation rate from 63.3% to 63.4%. The number of unemployed workers increased from 11659K to 11760K, the highest since February. Ironically, the U-6 unemployment rate for May declined from 13.9% to 13.8%, matching the lowest number of 2013. But once again it is the quality component of the jobs that was weak with Average Hourly Earnings missing expectations of a 0.2% increase (up from 0.2% last month), instead staying flat to the April number. The manufacturing renaissance continues to be delayed courtesy of a -8,000 drop in Mfg jobs in May. Finally birth-death added 205K jobs to the unadjusted number.
Charting the trend and the performance relative to expectations:
[4]
And the average hourly wages:
[5]
From the report:
Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.8 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.6 percent, were essentially unchanged in May.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.2 percent), adult women (6.5 percent), teenagers (24.5 percent), whites (6.7 percent), blacks (13.5 percent), and Hispanics (9.1 percent) showed little or no change in May. The jobless rate for Asians was 4.3 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In May, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was unchanged at 4.4 million. These individuals accounted for 37.3 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 1.0 million. (See table A-12.)
The civilian labor force rose by 420,000 to 155.7 million in May; however, the labor force participation rate was little changed at 63.4 percent. Over the year, the labor force participation rate has declined by 0.4 percentage point. The employment-population ratio was unchanged in May at 58.6 percent and has shown little movement, on net, over the past year. (See table A-1.)
In May, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was unchanged at 7.9 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In May, 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down from 2.4 million a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
The swings provided by the Birth Death:
[6]
And the Labor force participation rate:
[7]