And yet another baffle with absolute and unbelievable BS economic number is out, this time the Empire Fed index which magically spiked from -1.43 to 7.84 on expectations of a 0.00 print. We say magically, because besides the headline number, virtually everything else was down! To wit: New Orders down, Shipments down, Unfilled Orders down, Delivery Time down, Inventories down, Number of Employees down, Avg Workweek down, should we continue? The Empire Fed report admits as much: "The general business conditions index—the most comprehensive of the survey’s measures—rose nine points to 7.8. Nevertheless, most other indicators in the survey fell." Almost as if the NY Fed apologized for having to make up headline numbers.
For those following the labor market, here is the punchline: "Labor market conditions worsened, with the index for number of employees dropping to zero and the average workweek index retreating ten points to -11.3." In fact, the average workweek was the lowest since July 2011. Good thing that by now not even the most hardened permabulls pretend any actual fundamental underlying data matter. So let's just assume that the weather in June caused the NY Fed headline to diverge from all the underlying data and call it a day.
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From the report [4]:
After dipping into negative territory last month, the general business conditions index for June recovered some ground, rising nine points to 7.8—a sign that conditions had improved modestly. Roughly 29 percent reported that conditions had gotten better over the month, while 22 percent reported that conditions had worsened. However, while the general business conditions index was positive and higher than last month, many of the survey’s other indicators were negative and noticeably weaker.
The new orders index fell six points to -6.7, and the shipments index fell twelve points to -11.8. The unfilled orders index dropped eight points to -14.5, and the delivery time index declined three points to -6.5. The inventories index fell three points to -11.3, extending the decline in inventories to a fourth consecutive month.
Labor Market Conditions Soften
The prices paid index was little changed at 21.0, pointing to a steady level of input price increases over the month. The prices received index climbed seven points to 11.3, indicating that selling price increases had picked up. Labor market conditions were weak: the index for number of employeesfell six points to zero, indicating that employment levels were flat, and the average workweek index declined ten points to -11.3, a sign that hours worked fell modestly.
Six-Month Outlook Continues to Weaken
Hewing to the pattern of the past few months, indexes for the sixmonth outlook declined, suggesting that optimism about future conditions continued to wane. The future general business conditions index inched down to 25.0, the future new orders index fell nine points to 19.8, and the future shipments index fell five points to 20.2.
So much for the facts. And now, time to unleash a rumor that Bernanke is having bear flank stake for lunch, which as everyone knows is good for +100 points on the DJIA.