On Monday it was Alcoa, now it is Yum! Brands' turn. The food company, best known for its KFC mystery meat [4], and over-reliance on a suddenly careening China just reported results which were mixed. Revenue of $2.904 billion was less than the expected $2.92 billion and was 8% lower than the $3.2 billion reported a year ago. Operating profit excluding refranchising gains and losses was $358MM, below expectations of $375MM, leading to a EBIT margin of 12.5% also substantially less than the 14.5% reported a year ago. In short, worldwide operating profit crashed 20% including a 63% drop in China. But thanks to various below the line adjustments, including a tax rate of 22.1% or lower compared to the 23.9% a year ago, the company's EPS of $0.56 beat expectations of $0.54.
So all is well right and the stock is justified to be up after hours, right?
Well, here is a chart showing the company's stock price (black line) and the change in the sellside consensus forecast for Q2 EPS (red line) which today was $0.54. Two months ago it was $0.75... when the stock was trading $10 lower.
[5]
Efficient markets indeed.