So much for the trends of beats: July nonfarm payrolls +162K missing expectations of 185K; June was revised lower to 188K and the unemployment rate dips from 7.5% to 7.4%. The rate dropped because the civilian labor force declined from 155,835 to 155,798 or 37K, driven by an increase of people not in labor force to 89,957 - just shy of the all time high. This also means that the labor force participation rate once again ticked down to 63.4% from 63.5%.
[4]
Dismissing the aberration of year-end tax-shenanigans, personal income (which printed 0.3%) missed expectations by the most since July 2012. Adding to the apparent weakness was the prior 0.5% growth was revised lower to 0.4% - seemingly confirming the dismal 'quality' of jobs as the 'quantity' increases. Spending met expectations at +0.5%.
[5]
From the report:
Household Survey Data
Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.5 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.4 percent, edged down in July. Over the year, these measures were down by 1.2 million and 0.8 percentage point, respectively. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (6.5 percent) and blacks (12.6 percent) declined in July. The rates for adult men (7.0 percent), teenagers (23.7 percent), whites (6.6 percent), and Hispanics (9.4 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.7 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In July, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.2 million. These individuals accounted for 37.0 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 921,000 over the past year. (See table A-12.)
The civilian labor force participation rate was 63.4 percent in July, little changed over the month. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 58.7 percent. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 8.2 million in July. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In July, 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 988,000 discouraged workers in July, up by 136,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in July had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)