Via Gordon T. Long [7],
Will the US soon enter a Recession or is it actually in a Recession? Is there a possibility the US is in a Stealth Depression?
Lance Roberts, Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long share their research on this looming question through the use of 52 slides in this fast moving 43 minute video.
Lance Roberts believes the US changed significantly in the early 80's when the US moved from a production and productivity based society to a services society. As a consequence, structural problems are now underlying and potentially worsening the next recession.
The shift away from a critical export lead production society and the resulting economic impact is illustrated as an inflection point in a range of economic charts.
The results have been a steady decline in real disposable income and consumer consumption growth. As a 70% consumption economy this is having grave implications.
A broad range of subjects are debated in arriving at a conclusion on what lies ahead. Pensions, entitlement programs, housing, education, demographics and a raft of other areas are cited to support the consensus that emerged.
Lance Roberts notes:
While I do not think that we are currently in a "statistical" recession as think of in traditional terms such as GDP; there may well be a "stealth recession" on "Main Street." We can see evidence of this through the underlying trends of the macro data such as the structural shift in employment, the income gap and a shrinking middle class.
Of course, such comments always brings out criticism to the contary that the economy is clearly not in a recession and is fact on the verge of recovery. If that is the indeed the case then the question of why the Federal Reserve continues to pump billions into the financial markets each month begs to be answered.
Lance Roberts, Gordon T. Long and Charles Hugh-Smith ask, is the US in recession?