Just two weeks ago, agriculture commodity-watchers were celebrating [4]: “we are in for an exceptionally good year, perhaps one of the best in the last four or five years in terms of crop production,” as prices for corn, wheat and soybeans were falling amid global relief of the escalating inflation of food prices. So much for that... as SocGen notes, prices will be at or above current levels as hot, dry weather threatens U.S. Midwest crops. In addition, a shift in Chinese policy (following corruption concerns) is having a positive impact on price. Sure enough, Corn, Wheat (impacted by Brazil's frosts cutting forecast by 26%), and Soybean prices are screaming higher today as crops appear to be "decidely not in good shape." Corn is having its biggest gain since July 2012, Soybeans up most since 2010 and limit-up, and Wheat up its most since June 2012.
[5]
- Crop tour estimated corn output at 13.46b/bu, down from 13.763b seen by
USDA - *BRAZIL'S PARANA WHEAT OUTPUT TO REACH 1.98 MLN TONS IN 2013/14 (exp 2.7mln tons)
- *BRAZIL'S PARANA WHEAT SUFFERED LOSSES DUE TO FROST: CONAB
- Crop tour forecast soy production at 3.158b/bu, down from 3.255b
projected by USDA