The total amount of Greek government debt outstanding has grown so much over the last 15 months that it has retraced over 60% of the 'haircut'-based reduction and has jumped a stunning 14.5% in that period. As KeepTalkingGreece notes [4], this is despite three years of strict austerity measures, incredible taxes and a debt haircut of 53% (~100billion euros in March 2012). As To Vima reports [5], Greek debt stands at EUR 321 billion, which is considerably higher than the pre-crisis levels of 2009. Is it any wonder that Merkel and Schaeuble have been forced to admit that a new bailout will be required [6]? And how long before a 'new template' will be enforced?
[7]
Via KeepTalkingGreece blog [4],
The current debt data corresponds to 180% of GDP and thus despite having achieved a primary surplus. the debt is still burdened with the amount of loan interests.
Finance Ministrer Yiannis Stournaras and his economic team try to find ways on how to deal with the issue.
The big question remains: is the debt sustainable? Could a new haircut solve the problem of always increasing debt?
New bailout
While German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble revealed last week that Greece will need a new bailout package, EU commissioner European Union Commissioner Guenther Oettinger estimated the new bailout package to be slightly higher than 10 billion euro, Greek media reported on Saturday. Oettinger reiterated that there will be no new debt haircut.
Speaking to German media, Oettinger expects the new aid package for Greece to be much smaller than previous programs but said a debt write-down for the country can’t be ruled out definitively, even as the German government continues to reject it.
Mr. Oettinger, who is EU energy commissioner, said he expects new aid covering the period from 2014 to 2016 would involve a “small two-digit billion” euro sum, according to the interview.
Greece’s first bailout plan in 2010 brought the country loans of 73 billion euros ($97.67 billion). But as Greece’s economy deteriorated, that had to be supplemented with a new package valued at about EUR173 billion in 2012. ((WSJ [8])
Samaras want to get rid of the Troika
According to exclusive information, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is determined to apply three strategic steps to get rid of the austerity loan agreements.
Samaras will seek primary surplus, radical adjustment of debt and exit to the markets in 2014. The political negotiation will aim to avoid a third Memorandum of Understanding (loan agreement) with the Troika that will bring new austerity measures.
“I want to disengage from the memoranda, do away with the troika and the country to move to the next day,” Antonis Samaras allegedly told his interlocutors.
The prime minister will seek a solution near to a new haircut. Samaras campaign will start in October – after the German elections.
We conclude our Greek debt Sunday report with a “joke”
FinMin Yiannis Stournaras told Proto Thema that a new bailout doesn’t definitely mean ‘new austerity measures.’
“If Greece would need further support, this would be around 10 billion euros, ie a very small amount compared to previous memoranda. And we are not talking about new MoU, but about a financial support package, without new conditions. Furthermore, the targets – our obligations – have been set until 2015 set therefore no other measures can bee required, not other goals can be set. “