Much has been made of the survey-based self-referential PMI improvements in the Euro-Area in recent months. However, as we discussed in detail here [5], top-down GDP hardly resonates with this 'confidence inspiring' expansion data and global import improvements remain sadly lacking. It seems there is little apart from hope (and Draghi's imaginary OMT that ECB's Coeure explained this morning was 'very real') holding these manufacturing prints above the 50 level (based on the business outlook sub-indices). There is, however, one indicator of economic health that has consistently represented the reality of life on the ground on Europe... and, as we discussed here [5], it is getting worse not better. As the following map shows, unemployment rates are rising in almost every European nation with Cyprus (+5.1 percentage points in the last year) and Greece (+3.8 percentage points) the hardest hit and not expected to get better any time soon. So be careful what cleanest dirty shirt one bets on next.
The rise of unemployment YoY across the Euro-Zone...
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Source: Bloomberg Briefs