When last week the revised Q2 GDP print was announced [18], which beat expectations solidly driven entirely by a surge in net exports, we said that "with China on the rocks and tightening, the Emerging Markets in free fall, and Europe still a net exporter (so not benefiting the US), anyone hoping this trade led-recovery will be sustainable, will be disappointed." Sure enough, the first trade data update for the third quarter as of July, confirmed just this, as the trade deficit widenedfrom a revised $34.5 billion deficit, to a substantially larger monthly deficit, amounting to $39.1 billion. This was $500MM more than consensus expected, or $38.6 billion, and it means that as we predicted, the downward revisions to Q3 tracking estimates are about to start rolling in, trimming ~0.1%-0.2% from US GDP for this current quarter. Specifically, imports for the month rose from $225.1 billion to $228.6 billion while exports fell from $190.5 billion to $189.5 billion. But perhaps most notable is that in July, the US trade deficit with China and the EU rose to a record of $30.1 billion (from $26.6bn last month) and $13.9 billion (from $7.1bn) respectively.
[19]
The detailed breakdown:
In July, the goods deficit increased $4.5 billion from June to $58.6 billion, and the services surplus decreased $0.1 billion from June to $19.4 billion. Exports of goods decreased $1.1 billion to $132.7 billion, and imports of goods increased $3.4 billion to $191.3 billion. Exports of services were virtually unchanged at $56.7 billion, and imports of services increased $0.1 billion to $37.3 billion.
The goods and services deficit decreased $4.3 billion from July 2012 to July 2013. Exports were up $6.1 billion, or 3.3 percent, and imports were up $1.8 billion, or 0.8 percent.
The June to July decrease in exports of goods reflected decreases in capital goods ($1.6 billion); consumer goods ($1.4 billion); other goods ($0.3 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.2 billion). Increases occurred in industrial supplies and materials ($1.7 billion) and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.4 billion).
The June to July increase in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($2.0 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.8 billion); consumer goods ($0.7 billion); other goods ($0.3 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). A decrease occurred in capital goods ($0.3 billion).
[20]
Broken down by trade partners:
The July figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong $2.9 ($3.4 for June), Brazil $1.7 ($1.6), Australia $1.5 ($1.7), and Singapore $0.6 ($1.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China $30.1 ($26.6), European Union $13.9 ($7.1), OPEC $7.4 ($5.8), Japan $6.8 ($5.5), Germany $6.4 ($4.9), Mexico $4.1 ($4.8), Saudi Arabia $3.3 ($3.0), Canada $2.8 ($1.8), Venezuela $2.3 ($1.2), Ireland $2.3 ($1.4), Korea $2.2 ($1.6), and India $2.1 ($1.0).
[21]
A look at crude oil imports showed that July saw a spike in both total barrels imports and berrls per day, which rose to the highest of 2013, at 264.2MM barrels and 8,523K barrels per day.
[22]