While the ADP private payrolls report is nothing but pompous noise, which despite allegedly relying on actual empirical payrolls data has greater revisions than even the BLS's largely made up number, what it reported today would certainly have implications on expectations for tomorrow' NFP report. Which is why on the surface while the just reported miss to expectations of 176K (Exp. 184K) was not too bad, it was quite bad to those hoping the Friday NFP print would be atrocious and force the Fed to delay tapering. Based on today's data point at least, the Taper is set to proceed in just under two weeks. This was the first miss in three months, and also follows a small revision to the July number from 200K to 198K. Finally, this was the first sequential break in the monthly rate of increase since April.
The breakdown from the ADP report, which is so meaningless, it is just random numbers, but here it is to fill some empty space with 1s and 0s:
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More from the report:
Goods-producing employment rose by 11,000 jobs in August, at roughly half the growth rate of the previous month. Construction payrolls added 4,000 jobs, while manufacturing payrolls increased by 5,000, rebounding from a decline in July.
Service-providing industries added 165,000 jobs in August, down from 176,000 in July. Gains were broad-based across industries. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, professional/business services added the most jobs with 50,000 over the month. Trade/transportation/utilities services saw an increase of 40,000 jobs, while financial activities showed a modest gain of 1,000 jobs, the category’s smallest monthly increase since June of 2012.
"The U.S. private sector added 176,000 jobs in August, as companies of all sizes expanded their payrolls over the previous month," said Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “The August job gains are in line with the monthly average over the last 12 months.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "It is steady as she goes in the job market. Job gains in August were consistent with increases experienced over the past two-plus years. There is little evidence that fiscal austerity and Health Care Reform have had a significant impact on the job market.”
Some more largely meaningless charts:
Finally, where ADP truly excels at: social-network friendly infographics:
