At 1615ET, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach will begin his firm's latest presentation of his market views. We already know his views on the potential for higher rates and the inevitability of the taper, [11] "the 10Y Yield may go up to as highs as 3.1% by year-end," because "investors
have switched from "I don't care about volatility, I want income" to "I
don't care about income, I dont want volatility." While he previously noted he "sees no sign of that changing...", we wonder if the title of his always full of charts presentation sets up for some change - "what if?"
The Annotated Gundlach (via Bloomberg)
On QE:
*GUNDLACH SAYS FED MAKING BIG MISTAKE WITH QE END TALK
*GUNDLACH SAYS BOND SELLOFF NOT RELATED TO FUNDAMENTALS
*GUNDLACH SAYS EMERGING MARKETS CRISIS COULD REVERSE BOND SLUMP
*GUNDLACH SAYS INVEST IN RISK MARKETS THAT ARE INSULATED FROM QE
On EM:
*GUNDLACH SEES CLOSE CORRELATION BETWEEN RUPEE, U.S. BOND YIELDS (as we noted here [12])
*GUNDLACH SEES FOREIGN CAPITAL FLIGHT FROM INDIA
*GUNDLACH SAYS RUPEE WEAKEST EM CURRENCY
*GUNDLACH SAYS CHINESE ECONOMY LESS DEPENDENT ON FOREIGN CAPITAL
*GUNDLACH SAYS HE'S NOT SHORT INDIAN STOCKS
On Rates:
*GUNDLACH SAYS WON'T TAKE INTEREST RATE RISK AT DBLTX TO ZERO
*GUNDLACH SAYS TOTAL RETURN FUND SHORTER DURATION THAN BENCHMARK
*GUNDLACH SAYS TIPS IS WORST BOND MARKET THIS YEAR
*GUNDLACH SAYS TIPS DON'T SUGGEST INFLATION
*GUNDLACH SEES NO INFLATION SIGNALS IN U.S.
*GUNDLACH SAYS FUNDAMENTALS OF NON-AGENCY MBS MARKET IMPROVED
*GUNDLACH SAYS MORTGAGE REITS, CLOSED-END BOND FUNDS HAVE VALUE
*GUNDLACH SAYS 10-YR YIELD WON'T SEE MAJOR DECLINE W/O CATALYST
On Gold:
*GUNDLACH SAYS GOLD, REAL ESTATE HAVE NEGATIVE CORRELATION
*GUNDLACH SAYS GOLD AT CURRENT LEVEL `SOMETHING OF SAFE HAVEN'
On Housing:
*GUNDLACH SAYS HOUSING WON'T CONTINUE TO BE ECONOMIC TAILWIND
*GUNDLACH SAYS INVESTORS OVERESTIMATE HOW MUCH HOUSING WILL GAIN
*GUNDLACH SAYS WOULD FOCUS ON AGENCY REITS
*GUNDLACH SAYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY STILL GOOD ENOUGH
*GUNDLACH SAYS FURTHER RATE INCREASES WLD BE PROBLEMATIC
On Europe:
*GUNDLACH SEES NO REGIME CHANGE IN GERMANY
*GUNDLACH SEES IMPACT OF GERMAN ELECTION WILL BE ZERO
On Dollar:
*GUNDLACH SAYS DOLLAR HAS BEEN `STRONGISH'
*GUNDLACH SAYS DOLLAR PROBABLY GETTING STRONGER
Click image for link to webcast
[13]
Full presentation below: