New home sales meet expectations at 421k after downward revisions in the last month - which was already the biggest miss of expectations in over 3 years.
[4]
This looks like the last hurrah rush for purchases as we got a dip lower in rates in July before the most recent surge higher.
[5]
Bear in mind that the actual unadjusted number of homes sold was a mere 35k (the 3rd lowest in 2013) and 11k have yet to be started. In the meantime, median home prices continue to slide - now at 2013's lows and supply is rising at 5.1 months (unadjusted) this is the highest in 2013.
It seems that as rates rise, just as we warned, speculative capital will exit (on uneconomic yields) and home prices ae forced lower on a stagant income vs higher rates affordability basis.
[6]
Sure enough, median home prices have slumped to their lowest level since January 2013.
and don't get too excited about today's print - as the following chart illustrates all too clearly - the data has an awkward tendency to be revised notably lower over time... (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)
Charts: Bloomberg