In a world in which nobody knows anymore if good is good, bad, neutral, or completely irrelevant, today's final Q2 GDP revision was largely meaningless, although we are confident the algos will somehow take this red flashing headline as a sufficient reason to ignite momentum higher. At 2.48%, the final print was below the expected 2.6%, and below the first revision of 2.52%. It is certainly well below Groundhog Phil Joe Lavorgna's 3.0% forecast.
Key source data suggest that Q2 real #GDP [4] could be revised up 0.5% to +3.0%. If so, that helps H2 growth prospects.
— Joseph A. LaVorgna (@Lavorgnanomics) September 18, 2013 [5]
Yet despite the change deep to the right of the decimal comma, there was little to note: Personal Consumption came at 1.8%, missing expectations of 1.9% as the broke consumer obviously can't "charge" much more, and resulted in 1.24% of the 2.52% GDP print, modestly higher than the 1.21% in the first Q2 revision, but well below the 1.54% in Q1. Other components saw a modest drag from net exports which from 0.00% declined to -0.06%, while change in private inventories dipped from 0.59% in the prior revision to 0.41% in the final one. This is also well below the 0.93% in Q1. Finally, fixed investment was also in line, at 0.96%, up a fraction from the 0.90% in the final revision.
[6]
Overall, nothing to write home about, and now we look forward to the far lower Q3 print which will likely print in the mid to upper 1% range.