The equity market has discounted a large portion of any improved outlook that the always-optimistic sell-side strategists believe is just around the corner. As Barclays notes, we have just witnessed the largest two-year expansion of P/E multiples since the late 90’s. This 'bubble' of optimism, sparked by a repressive Fed policy, combined with historical valuation metrics that are above their long-term averages, implies a correction and a period of consolidation is likely to plague the U.S. equity market during the first half of 2014.
Via Barclays,
The improved outlook is fully discounted in share prices... Given that historical valuation metrics are above their long-term averages it is difficult to make a case to the
contrary.
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...and the largest two-year expansion of PE multiples since the late 90’s implies a correction and a period of consolidation is likely to plague the U.S. equity market during the first half of 2014.
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